March 2026
The Scene Right Now
It’s March 13, 2026. The US-Israel war on Iran has choked the Strait of Hormuz. India imports 60% of its LPG, and 90% of those imports transit that 21-mile-wide strait. The government has suspended commercial LPG supply to restaurants and hotels. The Essential Commodities Act has been invoked.
In Bangalore, only 10% of restaurants received gas supply on Monday. In Mumbai, 20% of hotels and restaurants have shut down, with industry bodies warning 50% could follow. In Tamil Nadu, 10,000 restaurants face closure. In Kolkata, 40% of roughly 5,000 eateries report operational disruptions. Domestic cylinder refills are delayed 2–8 days in major cities. Panic buying and black market premiums have emerged.
Some restaurants are burning firewood. In 2026.
The Economic Damage
India’s food services industry: $85 billion (₹7.1 lakh crore). 8.5 million direct employees, projected to reach 10.3 million by 2028. Contributes 1.9% to GDP.
When 20% of restaurants shut down, the damage is immediate: $17 billion (₹1.4 lakh crore) in annualized revenue at risk. 1.7 million direct jobs in jeopardy. Every week of shutdowns costs ~$325 million (₹2,730 crore). And that’s before you count the supply chain: farmers, distributors, delivery workers, packaging.
If the FHRAI warning comes true and 50% of restaurants close in major cities, you’re looking at $40+ billion in at-risk revenue.
All because cooking fuel comes from a strait that a foreign war has shut down.
The Subsidy That Goes Up in Smoke
India spends approximately $5 billion (₹42,000 crore) per year on LPG subsidies:
- $1.4 billion (₹12,000 crore) for Ujjwala targeted subsidy — ₹300 per cylinder for up to 9 refills for ~100 million poor households
- $3.6 billion (₹30,000 crore) to compensate oil marketing companies (IOCL, BPCL, HPCL) for selling LPG below cost
These are FY 2025-26 numbers — before oil spiked to $113/barrel. Every $10 increase in crude adds $12–13 billion (₹1–1.1 lakh crore) to India’s annual oil import bill.
This is a recurring cost. Every year. Forever. And the gas still ran out.
The Core Numbers
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Total LPG consumption | 31.3 million tonnes/year |
| LPG imports | 19.3 million tonnes (62%) |
| Domestic LPG production | 12.8 million tonnes (maxed out) |
| Annual LPG import bill | $15.4 billion / ₹1.3 lakh crore |
| Annual LPG subsidy | $5 billion / ₹42,000 crore |
| LPG households | 330 million (33 crore) |
| Average LPG per household | ~95 kg/year (~6.7 cylinders) |
The structural fact that makes everything else work: domestic LPG production is at capacity (12.8 million tonnes). India cannot produce more. Every tonne of demand you remove is a tonne of import you eliminate. There is no slack. Demand reduction equals import reduction, tonne for tonne.
This structural inevitability is part of what Azeem Azhar calls the solar supercycle — the compounding, exponential shift where solar economics make fossil fuel lock-in increasingly untenable. India’s cooking energy crisis is a textbook case.
Why Induction Beats Gas — The Efficiency Gap
Gas stoves: 35% thermal efficiency. 65% of every imported LPG molecule’s energy heats the air around the pot, not the food.
Induction stoves: 85% thermal efficiency. Almost all energy goes directly into cooking.
Same meal, 2.5x less energy. When that energy comes from imported fossil fuel transiting a warzone, the efficiency gap represents an enormous and entirely unnecessary foreign exchange drain. India is literally paying OPEC to warm kitchen ceilings.
The Household Math
What a solar + induction switch costs
| Component | Cost | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Solar panels (3kW) | ₹75,000 | At zero import tariff. Falling ~10%/year |
| Installation/BOS | ₹75,000 | Inverter, mounting, wiring, labor. Stays fixed |
| Induction stove | ₹2,000 | Single-burner, widely available |
| Total | ₹1,52,000 ($1,810) | One-time. 25-year asset |
What you get
- 4,500 kWh/year of electricity generation
- Cooking via induction: ~850 kWh/year (less than 20% of output)
- Remaining 80%: powers home appliances, feeds surplus to grid via net metering
Annual savings
- LPG cost avoided: ~₹6,100 ($73)
- Grid electricity displaced: ~₹32,850 ($391) — at ₹9/kWh for 3,650 kWh
- Total: ~₹39,000 ($464)/year
Payback: ~3.9 years
Then 21+ years of near-free energy. Gas stoves need refills forever. The sun sends no invoice. And panels get cheaper every year — at 10% annual decline, the same system costs ₹1,03,000 by year 10 (panels drop from ₹75K to ₹26K while installation stays at ₹75K).
The infrastructure already exists
Tens of millions of Indian homes already have inverter + battery UPS systems — frequent power outages made them practically essential, especially in Tier 2/3 cities. The hardest part of the infrastructure — energy storage and power conversion — is already in place. Add solar panels, and those batteries charge from the sun. The induction stove runs on stored power even during grid outages.
Pathway: Solar panels → existing inverter/battery → induction stove.
How you actually pay for it
You don’t pay ₹1,52,000 out of pocket.
| Source | Amount |
|---|---|
| PM Surya Ghar subsidy (existing) | ₹78,000 |
| LPG subsidy redirect (proposed top-up) | ₹10,000 |
| Free induction stove (from same budget) | ₹2,000 |
| Total government support | ₹90,000 |
| Household priority loan | ₹62,000 |
Monthly EMI on ₹62,000 (5-year loan at 8%): ~₹1,200 Monthly savings (LPG + grid): ~₹3,250
The household is cash-positive from Day 1. The loan pays for itself from savings every single month.
The Induction Trade: The Best Deal India Will Ever Be Offered
Before solar even enters the picture, there’s a simpler trade.
Give every Indian household an induction stove.
| Amount | Frequency | |
|---|---|---|
| Cost of 330M induction stoves | ₹66,000 crore ($7.9B) | Once |
| Annual LPG import bill eliminated | ₹1.3 lakh crore ($15.4B) | Every year |
| Payback | 6 months | On avoided imports alone |
₹66,000 crore is less than 2 years of the LPG subsidy India already pays. The induction stoves pay for themselves in six months from import savings alone. Then those savings continue — every year, forever.
The 2-Year Subsidy Reframe
India will spend ₹84,000 crore ($10 billion) over the next 2 years subsidizing LPG.
Take that ₹84,000 crore instead:
- ₹66,000 crore ($7.9B) → induction stove for every household in India
- ₹18,000 crore ($2.1B) → solar top-ups covering ~1.5 crore homes
After that, the ₹42,000 crore/year LPG subsidy is gone. Permanently. The ₹1.3 lakh crore/year import bill starts collapsing as solar rolls out. The next Hormuz crisis becomes irrelevant.
This isn’t spending. It’s the best trade India will ever make.
Redirecting 1 Year of LPG Subsidy
₹42,000 crore deployed at ₹12,000 per household (₹10,000 solar top-up + ₹2,000 free induction stove):
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Households converted | 3.5 crore (35 million) |
| LPG demand eliminated | 3.3 million tonnes/year |
| Import savings (at $800/tonne) | ₹22,000 crore ($2.6 billion)/year |
| Subsidy payback | ~23 months |
Those 3.5 crore households are permanently off imported gas. The ₹42,000 crore subsidy pays for itself from import savings in under 2 years. Name one other government programme that does this.
Each household takes a ₹62,000 priority loan for the solar system, repaid from monthly savings that exceed the EMI from Day 1. The government outlay is ₹12,000 per household. The system cost is ₹1,52,000. The difference is self-liquidating lending, not subsidy.
The Long View: Compounding Cost of Doing Nothing
Do Nothing annual cost (everything India spends on household cooking + electricity):
- Household LPG purchases: $24B/year
- Government LPG subsidy: $5B/year
- Household grid electricity: $53B/year
- Total: $82B (₹6.9 lakh crore)/year. Forever.
Act Now (phased solar + induction transition at 3.5 crore households/year):
- Year 1: induction for all ($7.9B) + solar for 3.5 crore homes + grid for rest
- Years 2–10: solar rollout continues, grid costs shrink each year
- Transition complete: ~year 10 (at 3.5 crore/year rollout). After that: $0/year.
At 10 years: Do Nothing has cost $820 billion. Act Now has cost $670 billion (much of it self-liquidating solar loans). Net savings: $150 billion (₹12.6 lakh crore).
At 15 years: The gap is over $500 billion. Do Nothing keeps bleeding $82B/year forever. Act Now costs zero.
And these numbers get better every year because panel costs decline while LPG prices are structurally exposed to geopolitics. As Azeem Azhar argues in The Solar Supercycle, we are on an exponential curve where solar costs halve repeatedly while fossil fuel costs remain structurally volatile. India is on the wrong side of this curve — but doesn’t have to be.
Play with the numbers yourself at prasannais.com/electrify-cooking — adjust oil price, tariff, subsidy, panel decline rate, and time horizon.
The Oil Price Breakpoints
| Oil Price | Solar+Induction Payback | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| $80/bbl | ~4.1 years | Already competitive |
| $100/bbl | ~4.0 years | Clear winner |
| $113/bbl | ~3.9 years | We are here |
| $125/bbl | ~3.8 years | Every month of delay costs billions |
| $150/bbl | ~3.7 years | And panels get cheaper every year |
And remember: panels get ~10% cheaper every year. LPG only gets more expensive. But notice the payback range is tight (3.7–4.1 years) across oil prices — because 84% of savings come from displacing grid electricity, not just LPG. Solar beats gas and coal. The war just makes the urgency impossible to ignore.
The Geopolitics of Energy Sovereignty
India’s cooking energy supply chain is currently hostage to three pressure points:
Iran/Hormuz: 90% of LPG imports transit the strait. India has zero control over this.
Russia: Since 2022, India’s largest crude supplier (35% of imports). Comes with US sanctions risk. In August 2025, the US imposed 25% additional tariffs on India explicitly for buying Russian oil.
OPEC: Saudi Aramco’s monthly Contract Price determines India’s LPG cost. India has no seat at that table.
Solar panels on Indian rooftops answer to none of these powers. The sun doesn’t have a foreign policy. It doesn’t impose sanctions. It doesn’t close straits. Every kWh generated on an Indian rooftop is a kWh that cannot be weaponized by any foreign government.
What India Should Do — This Week
-
Zero tariff on solar panel imports. Emergency measure for 2 years. Currently 20% BCD + 20% AIDC. Remove it. Domestic manufacturers are protected by ALMM requirements for government projects. This isn’t subsidizing solar — it’s removing taxes on energy independence.
-
Free induction stove for every household. ₹2,000 per unit. Fund from LPG subsidy. If the government can give free LPG connections under Ujjwala, it can give induction stoves under a “Cook Solar” equivalent. Total: ₹66,000 crore — less than 2 years of LPG subsidy.
-
₹10,000 solar top-up per household on top of PM Surya Ghar’s existing ₹78,000. Priority sector lending (MUDRA/SIDBI) for the remaining ₹62,000. Household is cash-positive from Day 1.
-
Fast-track net metering approvals. DISCOMs are the bottleneck. Mandate 15-day approval timelines. Net metering makes rooftop solar economically viable — surplus generation flows back to the grid.
-
Rooftop solar mandate for all government buildings. Every school, hospital, government office, railway station. IRCTC has already directed catering units to switch to induction — extend the logic.
-
Public campaign connecting the dots. Most people see the LPG shortage and the solar opportunity as separate issues. They aren’t. Make the link explicit: Solar + Induction = Freedom from Hormuz.
The Bottom Line
The math, stated as simply as possible:
- ₹66,000 crore once to give every household an induction stove → eliminates ₹1.3 lakh crore/year in LPG imports → 6-month payback
- ₹12,000 per household from redirected LPG subsidy → household takes ₹62,000 loan → cash-positive from Day 1 → subsidy pays for itself in 23 months from import savings
- Panels decline ~10%/year. LPG gets more expensive. The longer India waits, the worse the math gets for gas and the better it gets for solar.
Never again should a dosa shop in Bangalore shut down because of a war 3,000 km away.
The math works. The technology exists. The infrastructure (inverter batteries) is already in people’s homes. The subsidies being spent on the old system would more than fund the new one.
The only thing missing is the political will to connect the dots.
Interactive calculator: prasannais.com/electrify-cooking How we got here: savedosa.com
Sources
- India crude basket at $113.57/bbl as of March 11, 2026 (India Briefing)
- 31.3M tonnes LPG consumed; 19.3M imported (62%); domestic maxed at 12.8M tonnes (MoPNG, PPAC, Down To Earth, Business Today)
- 90% of LPG imports transit Hormuz (PIB, Organiser)
- LPG subsidy: ₹12,000 cr Ujjwala + ₹30,000 cr OMC = ₹42,000 cr (IANS, DD News, Lok Sabha Mar 2026)
- 330M domestic LPG connections (MoPNG)
- Food services industry: $85B, 8.5M employees, 1.9% GDP (NRAI 2024, Mordor Intelligence)
- 20% Mumbai hotels shut; 10% Bangalore restaurants got gas; 40% Kolkata eateries disrupted (India TV, Tribune, The Federal, Business Today)
- Panel prices: ₹200/W (2010) → ₹9-15/W (2024); learning rate ~10-15%/yr (IRENA, Our World In Data, Down To Earth)
- 3kW solar system: panels ₹75K + installation ₹75K = ₹1.5L at zero tariff; each % tariff adds ₹1,125 (Bluebird Solar, APN Solar, SolarSquare)
- PM Surya Ghar subsidy: ₹78,000 for 3kW (MNRE, pmsuryaghar.gov.in)
- Gas stove efficiency 30-40% (midpoint 35%); induction 80-90% (midpoint 85%)
- Every $10/bbl crude increase adds $12-13B to oil import bill (ICRA)
- IRCTC directed catering units to switch to induction (Business Today, Mar 2026)
- Exchange rate: ₹84/USD (March 2026)
- Azeem Azhar, The Solar Supercycle, Exponential View