Hormuz disrupted — Restaurants burning firewood in 2026

India pays ₹1.3 lakh crore/year for imported cooking gas. The fix costs ₹66,000 crore. Once.

The government just told restaurants to stop cooking. Here is a calculator that shows them what to do instead.

Annual ransom to Hormuz
Every year. Wars, sanctions, OPEC.
Revenue destroyed
Workers sent home
Direct restaurant jobs. Millions more in supply chains.
Subsidy up in smoke
Spent every year to keep gas cheap. Gas still ran out.
⚡ Adjust the scenario
India imports 60% of its LPG. 90% transits Hormuz. Domestic production is maxed. Every tonne of demand cut = one tonne less imported.
Zero slack. The math is direct.
THE FIX

Solar + Induction. Per household.

Panels: ₹75K (falling 10%/yr). Installation: ₹75K (fixed). Induction stove: ₹2K.

System cost today
Yearly savings
LPG gone + grid electricity from your roof. Stays in Indian families' pockets.
Pays for itself in
Then 22+ years free. Gas needs refills forever. The sun sends no invoice.
Efficiency
85% vs 35%
Induction: 85% into food. Gas: 35%. 65% of imported LPG heats the air. You pay OPEC to warm your ceiling.
THE TRADE

The best deal India will ever be offered

Induction stove for every Indian household

330 million stoves. End the LPG addiction at the source.
You pay (once)
ONCE. Done. Over.
→
You stop paying (forever)
EVERY YEAR. Gone.
Payback on avoided imports. No counter-argument.
India spent ₹42,000 crore last year subsidizing the gas it just ran out of.
Read that again. Slowly.

Redirect 1 year of LPG subsidy into solar + induction

How it works: PM Surya Ghar already gives ₹78,000 toward a 3kW solar system. Add a ₹10,000 top-up from redirected LPG money + a free ₹2,000 induction stove. Household takes a priority loan for the remaining ₹62,000. Monthly EMI: ~₹1,200. Monthly savings: ~₹3,250. Cash-positive from Day 1.

₹42,000 crore covers
At ₹10,000 top-up + ₹2,000 stove per household
LPG demand eliminated
Domestic production is maxed. Every kg cut = pure import reduction.
Annual import savings
Foreign exchange saved. Every year. Forever.
Subsidy payback
The subsidy pays for itself from import savings alone. Name one other govt programme that does this.
THE LONG VIEW

The compounding cost of doing nothing

Total national energy cost (cooking + household electricity). Solar rollout: HH/year. Panels decline /year.

🔴 Do Nothing

HH LPG
Govt subsidy
HH grid elec
Total

🟢 Act Now

Solar systems
Induction
Grid (pre-solar HH)
Total
Do Nothing
Act Now

The sun has no foreign policy. No sanctions. No straits. Every kWh on an Indian rooftop is a kWh no foreign government can weaponize.

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Methodology, sources, assumptions

LPG: 31.3 MT/yr. Imports 19.3 MT (62%). Domestic maxed 12.8 MT. 330M connections. ~95 kg/HH/yr. Source: MoPNG, PPAC, Down To Earth (Mar 2026).

Price model: LPG scales with crude at 7.08x ($113/bbl=$800/t). Cylinder 913 INR at $113. Subsidy: 12K cr Ujjwala + 30K cr OMC = 42K cr. Source: IANS, Lok Sabha (Mar 2026).

Solar system: Panels: 75K INR for 3kW (25 INR/W, zero tariff). Installation/BOS: 75K INR (inverter, mount, wiring, labor - constant). +1,125 INR/% tariff on panels only. PM Surya Ghar subsidy: 78K INR for 3kW (existing). Panel learning rate: ~10-15%/yr decline (slider). Global module prices fell from 200 INR/W (2010) to 9-15 INR/W (2024). Sources: IRENA, Bluebird Solar, Down To Earth, Our World In Data.

Induction: 2K INR single-burner.

Generation: 4,500 kWh/yr per 3kW. Cooking: 850 kWh/yr. Non-cooking HH: 1,500 kWh/yr. Grid: 9 INR/kWh blended residential.

Efficiency: Gas 35%. Induction 85%.

Restaurants: $85B market, 8.5M employees. Source: NRAI 2024, Mordor Intelligence.

Panel cost trajectory: At 10%/yr decline, 3kW panel cost goes from 75K (yr 0) to 67.5K (yr 1) to 44K (yr 5) to 26K (yr 10). Installation stays at 75K. Total system: 152K (yr 0) to 103K (yr 10). At 15%/yr: 93K by yr 5.

Loan assumption: 5-yr priority loan at 8% for household portion after subsidies. EMI calculated on remaining balance.

FX: 84 INR/USD.

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